Black Swans are in Flight

It’s been quite a month.  Heads down for 70+ hrs a week to launch a web site aimed at helping people understand and engage in the effort to return to honest money.  The Honest Money Center is formed with the prayer that over time, it will have the same impact as the 10th Amendment Center is having.

With Utah passing their sound money bill into law, the first shot across the Federal Reserve’s bow has been fired.  It very well could be looked at as a historical event in the decades to come.

Outside of that, the 2014 Outlook continues to unfold as scripted.  I must say that some events are progressing faster than I had thought, mainly due to the flock of black swans that have been let loose.  Japan’s nuclear problems, post earthquake/tsunami, the unrest/war in the Middle East….  Right now its too early to declare the Outlook has accelerated.  Economic statistics are improving, which will counter some of the other issues for a short time.

Over the next few years,  there will be an ebb and flow that will at times make it seem as though we are heading for a collapse in weeks/months.  Then we may enter a period that makes it appear as though it may be many years.  Keep your eye on the overall trend. It is still in motion.  In my opinion there is nothing short of an act of God that will stop us from experiencing a form of what was written in the paper.

The precious metals markets are near all time highs again.  Silver is on fire.  It seems to want $40/oz before correcting.  I still fully hold to my prediction that we will see a very sharp pullback in all markets, including commodities and precious metals sometime this year.  The 2011 deflationary scare will likely begin  when QE2 comes to an end or shortly before.    That assumes it will end.

The unknown factor now in that equation is the shock that Japan’s woes will bring to the world economy.  If it manifests itself prior to QE2 ending, we could see an extension or a roll right into QE3.  This could possibly a) place the beginning of the correction in the May time frame and b) make it a very brief one, as it becomes evident that the Fed (and most of the world’s central banks) will print, print, print.

Should the Fed end QE2 in the face of a new global economic downturn, we will see a very ugly sell off again.  Maybe not as bad as 2008, but breathtaking none-the-less.  The result would be, there would only be a few weeks/months between the end of QE2 and a QE3, and QE3 would be a doozy.

Oh, and just a quickey on the Police State front.  This from Republican Senator Lindsay Graham:

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a military lawyer, is the first member of Congress to say the legislature needs to explore the possibility, however unlikely, of limiting some kinds of free speech – like Terry Jones’ Quran burning – that help America’s enemies.  “I  wish we could find a way to hold people accountable. Free speech is a great idea, but we’re in a war,” he told CBS’s Bob Schieffer on “Face the Nation.”

A great idea?  But….. we are at war!  Really?  When was war declared?  When does war predicate suspension of 1st Amendment rights?  It is happening people. Help your friends remove their rose colored glasses before it is too late.

And I haven’t even spoken of the dire finances of the states and large municipalities….

As I said in the Outlook paper.  Lots of variables.  None can be perfectly predicted.  Stay alert.

Now that the big push for the web site release is over, I plan to give weekly or bi-weekly updates.  That’s the plan. We’ll see how it goes.

Tags: economics, inflation

Category: Commentary, Economics, Global Economics, Markets, Precious Metals, Sound Money, The Fed, US Dollar, US Economy