Outlook 2014 – 2011 Mid Year Update

This is the first update to the “Outlook” paper released January 1st, 2011.  In that work I outlined a possible scenario whereby the United States would be taken to the economic and political brink by the year 2014, as several long established trends converge.  Originally I had planned to provide updates every six months. This update was delayed because of the nature of the nation’s debt ceiling debate.  It was more protracted and contentious than I had anticipated.  How it was resolved has dramatically altered the landscape of our nation’s fiscal policy.

Economist Herbert Stein said “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”  This is a simple, but profound observation.  From an economic standpoint, and as it applies to the United States, that means that one cannot continue to go into debt in order to solve a debt problem.  Headlines in the days since the ceiling was raised say it all:

Click here to download the .pdf.

Category: Commentary